Blog

15 Aug 2008

Posted at 14:31h in The Friday Brief by
The summer of ‘08 has been anything but a typical lazy, quiet break from an otherwise frenetic calendar. Global equity markets dropped like October meteors in July; oil and gasoline prices exploded past record highs as the summer driving vacation season approached; record levels of rainfall in the mid-west sent the mighty Mississippi River pouring over thousands of acres of rich farmland, destroying much of the nation’s bread basket; thousands of Americans have lost or are near losing their homes to foreclosure; China puts its best national face on for the rest of the world as they host the 2008 Summer Olympics – a time for peace and international friendship, and two Russian and Georgian women hug during their medal ceremony as their countrymen kill one another.

08 Aug 2008

Posted at 15:08h in The Friday Brief by
Oil is dropping like arock. It stands at $117.42 a barrel in New York, 20% below its record high of $147.27 reached July11th. Copper heads for its biggest weekly drop since March and down 12% since June. The dollar is climbing to a five?month high against the Euro putting further pressure on oil and other commodities. And gold fell to an eight?week low in London on speculation that dollar gains will spur gold sales by investors who bought the metal as a hedge against a sinking dollar.  

01 Aug 2008

Posted at 15:19h in The Friday Brief by
Falling oil prices, an improving credit picture, and a few stronger-than-expected corporate earnings put a floor under equity markets that began a free-fall in June. The S&P 500 is down only 1% compared to a decline of 9% in June. The Nasdaq is up 1.5% for July following its 9% decline in June. Global equity markets demonstrated a similar pattern.

25 Jul 2008

Posted at 15:31h in The Friday Brief by
On the 14th of this month, the collective global investor decided oil was entirely too expensive. It is down nearly 15% from its peak of $147.27 per barrel. During the same period the Dow Jones Industrial average rallied 2.7%, the small cap Russell 2000 jumped 5.7%, and the tech-laden Nasdaq, 3%. Some better-than-expected news from leading banks added fuel to the rally.

06 Jun 2008

Posted at 15:39h in The Friday Brief by
The oil bulls stampeded last night and the herd is growing. Crude rose more than $8 per barrel on a Morgan Stanley report that Asia is taking an unprecedented share of Middle Eastern exports. The report said that oil could reach $150 per barrel within the month. Almost on cue, Nigerian workers threaten to strike if Chevron fails to meet its demands.

30 May 2008

Posted at 15:45h in The Friday Brief by
The broad US economy continues to find ways to grow despite mounting hurdles. Government reports this week of increases in GDP, exports, personal incomes, and new houses sold all defied economists’ estimates. Gains in some cases were significant, while others were increases on a declining scale.

16 May 2008

Posted at 16:05h in The Friday Brief by
With oil and gasoline prices raising to new highs daily it would be easy to paint a bleak picture for the future, particularly if energy was a large part of your expenses. Industries such as airlines, parcel delivery, and small businesses where transportation figures largely, are in a vise-like squeeze without signs of relief.

09 May 2008

Posted at 16:13h in The Friday Brief by
There remains at least one strong horse in theUSeconomy - exports. As the dollar falls in value relative to other currencies, American produced goods and services become more competitive in the global marketplace. Our trade deficits with creditor nations are shrinking dramatically. As a whole, our trade deficit is now 5% of GDP, down from a 7% peak. According to Credit Suisse it is only 3% when oil is excluded.

02 May 2008

Posted at 16:19h in The Friday Brief by
In our Brief two weeks ago we presented the possibility that the markets are sensing a comeback in the US economy. The Dow Jones Industrials are up 3.7% and the Nasdaq is up 4.7% from that point. Since their March lows the two indices are up 12.5% and 15.5% respectively. The bond markets and the currency markets are also moving in agreement as the dollar reached a five-week high yesterday and bond prices are trending down taking rates modestly higher.