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It can be argued that since September of 2008 the stock market has experienced two distinct bear markets; one starting in September 2008 and one starting February 10th 2009. It could also be argued that three-month 40% rally we now enjoy eliminates the second bear market leaving only the first to battle.  

As the world recession eases there is much talk of a “new normal,” in the global economy, characterized by heightened government regulation, slower growth, and a shrinking role for the US. Anyone familiar with the history of booms and busts hardly disagrees with the premise, especially given the extensive damage wrought on the worlds’ credit infrastructure, the breakdown of fundamental investor trusts by regulators who increasingly blur the lines between public and private rights, and a consumer who is too tapped-out, over-leveraged, and over-taxed to consume us out of this one.

Mounting concerns over unemployment, country-debt quality, and housing helped send the S&P 500 down 2.4% from Monday’s close, but the index remains .7% above last Friday’s close and more than 31% ahead of its low reached March 9th. A bit of cooling is inevitable as investors are perhaps a bit too far in front of the economic data; data which largely expresses ‘less bad’ news than truly good news on the recovery.

How investor outlook has improved since those dark days of early March. The S&P 500 remains 32% above its March 9th low despite recent announcements that Chrysler and GM are closing 789 and 1,000 of their dealerships, respectively. All signs suggest this is a confidence rally. The huge liquidity pumped into the global economies is driving short-term interest rates to levels that no longer hold any appeal for investors. They are fleeing the relative safety of short government bonds in pursuit of higher returns of higher risk instruments. With real estate down for the count, stocks and commodities represent the only game in town at the moment. Still some argue that the current rally is a trap, a bear market rally that will eventually falter. Our opinion is that the rally is a bit overdone, but it is for real.

Since the exaggerated stock market lows of early March, investors have been overjoyed by recent Good news that the trends in earnings, housing, jobs, and the economy may be slowing in their descent. They are glimmers of light in an otherwise dark reality. But this is a Bad Recession, the worst since the Great Depression, and it is unique in numerous ways. Finding remedies that don’t make matters worse poses hugely daunting challenges for government officials. And the Ugly truth is they have bent and even broken good faith promises, contracts, and even the Constitution in the name of remedy. The effects of these broken trusts, the exponential explosion of federal debt, and unprecedented spending on social programs that will not end after recovery will have major and unintended consequences on our future economy.

The S&P 500 index rose 10% in April, for its largest monthly increase since 2000, despite a steady stream of negative to mixed economic data. Its near-two-month rally has added 29% to the index’s value. The story was more mixed for bonds as short term rates fell and long term increased. But the clear message is that both the bond and stock markets are positioning for recovery. Even Thursday’s announcement that Gross Domestic Product fell by a whopping 6.1% had no significant impact on the markets.

After six weeks of market gains, we stalled at the beginning of this one. Leading economic indicators released on Monday indicated no clear signals of improvement which promptly sent the S&P 500 down 4.3%. It appeared that investors had lost their willingness to look beyond the bad news toward the possibility of economic recovery. But optimism returned on Tuesday with a significant rally on comments from Treasury Secretary Mr. Geithner that most banks were sufficiently capitalized. Market strength continued throughout the week as one earnings or economic report followed another with enough positive insight to stoke the bulls. State Street's institutional investor confidence index jumped 10 points in April to 79.6. The report, which analyzes trading volumes, said monthly flows into U.S. stocks are in the 98th percentile.

In the process of investing we spend a great deal of time in linear thinking. We measure, we weigh, we time, and we project. We draw lots of lines as we make our assertions and projections. The regulatory agencies require us to disclaim that past results do not guarantee future results, but we all, to various degrees, subscribe to that very notion. The multi-billion dollar marketing machine we’ll simply call Wall Street spends millions of dollars a day drawing lines which analyze, dissect, compare, measure, and highlight past results. There is an implication that the more colorful and complicated these reports are the better equipped we are to decide their appropriateness for the future.  

There are two categories of policy available to the government to influence an economy; monetary and fiscal. Fiscal policy employs government spending and taxation. Monetary policy, primarily overseen by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is used to control and manipulate the supply and the cost (interest) of money in order to regulate the growth in the economy and the stability of prices. Of the nearly $12 trillion lent, promised and spent so far, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s program to drive down mortgage rates is delivering on its promise. Fixed 30-year mortgage rates are now down to 4.78% according to Freddie Mac. They are down for the second week in a row.

This was a good week from both the perspective of strong new monetary remedies as well as economic indicators that the economy may be turning. On Monday, Mr. Geithner knocked one out of the park (market-wise) when he announced his plan to buy as much as $1 trillion of bad assets from banks and avoid nationalization. Bond fund giants Pimco and Blackrock and others say they will participate in the plan. Economic reports on housing and durable goods also added to the prospect that the fourth quarter’s slide of 6.3% might have been its worst.