Blog

05 Jan 2007

Posted at 16:27h in The Friday Brief by
Economic reports continue to indicate that theUSeconomy and the global economy are headed for a soft landing rather than a recession, despite the decline in housing and the auto sectors. Today, the Labor Department announced that theU.S.added a greater-than-expected 167,000 workers to employers’ payrolls in December while incomes grew by the most in eight months. The employment gain followed a 154,000 rise in November, also larger than previously estimated and the overall unemployment rate held at 4.5%. On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management helped lift stocks by reporting that its barometer of manufacturing business crept up to 51.4 in December, indicating growth after a brief contraction in November.

15 Dec 2006

Posted at 15:24h in The Friday Brief by
The Fed met earlier this week and announced that they plan to keep the brakes on the economy as they fear inflation worse than they do a slowing economy. But there was room in their statement for hope that a cut would come in 2007 noting a “mixed” economic performance and describing the year-long housing slump as “substantial.”

01 Dec 2006

Posted at 15:49h in The Friday Brief by
The government revised its estimate of how fast theUSeconomy grew in the third quarter from 1.6% to 2.2%. Stocks did very well mid week as investors were cheered by faster growth in the economy which drives corporate profits higher. Bonds on the other hand slid on the news as stronger economies can mean higher inflation. 

10 Nov 2006

Posted at 16:00h in The Friday Brief by
The polls tell us that the Republicans lost the election over the Iraqi War and scandals. But, scandals are a part of the political fabric and largely accepted. It’s obvious that the Bush’s administration’s handling of the war is the major reason for the Republicans’ historic defeat. Even at the outset, the war was fraught with political risk. The world was not behind it nor was a significant minority (at that time) of the country. Wars are never as quick or efficient as hoped. In time and with daily reports of increasing chaos, support at home quickly diminished. The no-war minority grew more vocal, and with the help of opportunistic politicians and an Administration deaf to outside voices, an unstoppable groundswell began.

03 Nov 2006

Posted at 16:05h in The Friday Brief by
This economy continues to surprise analysts with its resilience in the face of circumstances that have crushed previous expansions. The government announced today that the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, its lowest level since May 2001. The report also showed that service sector activity accelerated as housing declined.

27 Oct 2006

Posted at 16:07h in The Friday Brief by
Just before landing an airplane, the pilot flares back, slowing its speed by transitioning into a stall attitude. After slowing down, he changes pitch into a landing attitude shortly before touching down. The stall essentially drops the plane onto the runway. Stall too early and you get quite a bump. Contents in the overhead bins most definitely shift, if not fall. Stall just right and the plane gently touches the runway, its speed no longer sufficient to keep it aloft. Airline captains get applause when they land a plane like that.

13 Oct 2006

Posted at 16:11h in The Friday Brief by
If you had been given a glance into the future by reading a few of this week’s headlines, would you not guess that stocks would be fall rather than chase new highs? North Korea claims that it detonated a nuclear device, Fed governors threaten further rate hikes, housing continues its retreat, a plane crashes into a Manhattan high-rise, and option scandals at major corporations abound. And aren’t we in the midst of the historically weakest time of the year for stocks – September and October? We have to marvel at the new highs being made.

22 Sep 2006

Posted at 15:11h in The Friday Brief by
No one doubts the economy is slowing, but there is mounting debate as to how fast; will we get the “soft landing” that is hoped for or something more disruptive? Just a month or two ago the worry was that continued economic growth combined with tight labor might spark inflation. So far that has not happened. The most recent report of prices paid at the producer level released Tuesday showed a drop of .4%, well below expectations.

08 Sep 2006

Posted at 15:35h in The Friday Brief by
Everybody’s on hold; from the Space Shuttle Atlantis, to the Federal Reserve. While NASA hopes to launch today at 11:40 after a three year hold, we hope it will take considerably less time to re-launch the economy. The Fed has decided to hold further rate increases until it gets a better picture of the economy’s health. The Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Bank of Korea announced a similar strategy this week. Even OPEC is expected to hold oil production steady when they meet next week to see what happens. Doing so would help avoid a supply-driven run-up in prices. So the world watches the economic data to learn just how fast the US and the global economies are slowing.