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"People call it luck when you've acted more sensibly then they have." Amy Tan

When we invest or expend money to make a profit, we start from one of two vantages: Confidence or Luck. The first requires effort, competence, and a thorough understanding of what is controllable and what is not controllable and we plan contingencies for those things that are not controllable. The second perspective is the veritable flip a coin. Luck-dependent investment decisions are based on things like past performance, colorful brochures, and influential arguments.

Yesterday's report that the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance was the lowest since the early 70's provides more evidence that the US economy is becoming stronger. Investors are becoming convinced that the Federal Reserve will soon begin raising interest rates back to levels reflective of a healthy economy.

We all have our to-do lists, whether on scraps of paper or some digital device. They contain the usual stuff like groceries, leaking faucets needing repair, and dinner parties to plan. But they also contain what I'll call 'big heavies.' Those to-do's that invariably find their way to the bottom of our lists that take root there for months or years. Big heavies are things like life insurance planning, writing or updating wills, and moving to a better financial advisory relationship. We absolutely understand how tremendously important these things are when we think about them, but those thoughts are so quickly eclipsed by more immediate thoughts like getting those steaks for tonight's dinner party.

It was a stormy week for stocks and bonds as indexes were rocked by the uncertainty of Greece's fate, the near-$4 trillion rout of Chinese stocks, the hours-long halt on the NY Stock Exchange, grounded United Airlines planes, and tumbling oil industry shares. With stocks rising and falling 1% to 1.5% in a day, one might easily think that his portfolio was bouncing about in similar fashion.

A couple of weeks ago our bank sent a book to me called "The One Thing (The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results)" by Gary Keller. Turns out our bank, the Bank of America, did ONE Thing to improve our partnership - they gave me a book, a simple, yet profound book that teaches the reader to ask powerful questions in the context of their lives and businesses that can be life-changing.

Practically speaking, the odds of Greece meeting its bailout obligations to the European Union and its credit demands of the IMF and other creditors by June 30th are close to nil. Odds are just as small that enough patience exists on the part of EU...

We are big fans of Seth Godin at Beacon. As a marketing genius, his focus is centered in that industry, but many of his writings are much more broadly applicable. Not long ago a friend and client asked us to review an indexed life insurance product that his buddy, we'll call him Bob, was near zealous over. Bob was so enamored with the promises of the insurance policy that he was even considering changing careers to sell it. A change of some kind was forced on him because he had just been laid off at 50 from a high-level executive position with a major pharmaceutical firm.

Since the Financial Crisis of 2008 and 2009, insurance agents, stock brokers, and bank representatives have been in high gear selling life insurance products to investors clamoring for anything that ensures them against the drubbing they received in the markets. They hear of enticing promises like "Guaranteed Income," "Guaranteed Principal," and "All the market's upside with none of its downside" and they find them hard if not impossible to resist. Are annuities and indexed life products as good as their promoters claim they are?