This week stocks investors started the year with conviction as the NASDAQ reached a 2 ½ year high yesterday and a few companies saw their stocks rise more this week than all of last year. Early selling this morning gave way to buying as investors were cheered by the announcement by TomRidge
Amidst the continuing threats of terror attacks, the War inIraq, the erosion of trust of corporate chieftains and mutual fund managers, the dollar’s continuing decline, and a host of other worries, the S&P 500 index managed the broadest advance in 23 years. Over 90% of S&P 500 stocks rallied during the year, according to Bloomberg. The S&P and the Dow Jones Industrials were each up over 28%, including dividends, while the technology and biotech-heavy NASDAQ was up over 50%.
Good news on jobs, leading economic indicators, and comments from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve sent stocks soaring on Thursday. So far this year the Dow and S&P are up roughly 24% while the NASDAQ is up 46%. Stocks are poised to have their first up year since 1999.
For the first part of the week market prognosticators were absorbed with the question of whether or not the Fed would remove the words “for a considerable period” from their comments indicating how long they might sustain short-term interest rates at these historic levels. They did not. Market watchers for the last part of the week have been focused on whether or not the Dow Jones Industrial Index would reach 10,000. It did.
This week we saw improvement on the government policy front. Yesterday, President Bush announced an end to the steel tariffs that have caused such noise from Europe andChina, as he announced that they had served their purpose. Generally any government policy that restricts free trade is bad, but when concerted foreign competitive practices cause whole-industry disruption in a target country and the jobs it provides, action may be warranted. But the questions are always complicated and heavily influenced by bias.
The market continues its sideways movement as the numbers from business and government continue adding to the case that the recovery is real and sustainable. But everyone, from individual investors to institutional giants, from small businesses to mega-corporations, from the Federal Reserve to the Administration, remains cautious on the future of this economy.
Great news on the economy and from companies this week supports the market highs, but fails to propel them higher. The big picture is getting considerably brighter. It is increasingly evident that the economy is gaining momentum propelled by a broadening array of industries.
The economy grew 7.2% from July through September. That’s the fastest growth rate since 1984 and more than twice that of the second quarter. For the first time in history, the economy exceeded $11 trillion, before adjustments for inflation, according to Bloomberg. Consumers spent at the fastest pace in six years and businesses showed strong increases in fixed investments. Numerous retailing managers have said their businesses improved noticeably after President Bush signed the tax-cut bill into law in July. Non-retailers are also joining the recovery. Profits of 375 members of the S&P 500 companies are up an average 22%.
The Dow Jones index has given up about 1.7% so far this week, while the S&P 500 has declined a little over 1%. The technology concentrated NASDAQ is down 2%. The declines are most likely the result of investors’ disappointment with the earnings reports that have been pouring from Wall Street this week.