30 Jul 2004

Posted at 16:13h in The Friday Brief by
The U.S. economy slowed to a 3% rate in the second quarter according to the government report just released.  The slower than expected growth was the result of rising energy prices and the weakest pace of consumer spending in three years.  Consumer spending which represents 70% of the economy increased only 1% after rising 4.1% during the first three months of the year.  The slowdown in GDP follows an upwardly revised 4.5% growth rate for the first quarter.  The bond market responded favorably to the news as the inflation pressures fall with slower growth.  

16 Jul 2004

Posted at 16:17h in The Friday Brief by
We are in the midst of earnings season once again.  This time, however, analysts’ projections may be catching up to the actual pace of company earnings being reported.  In more cases than in previous quarters, analysts have been a little too optimistic about the actual pace of growth.  But we should not lose sight of the fact that the actual rate of earnings growth is still quite good.

09 Jul 2004

Posted at 16:28h in The Friday Brief by
Perhaps the Fed has been correct in its view of the economic recovery and the patience they have demonstrated in raising rates.  Many have criticized their reluctance to raise rates faster feeling that it is important to achieve what they believe are market neutral rates sooner rather than later.  But maybe they have it right after all and have chosen the correct pace for rate hikes.  Too fast a pace might choke the recovery. 

02 Jul 2004

Posted at 16:30h in The Friday Brief by
One of the major economic trends we have discussed in earlier Briefs has been that of outsourcing.  I’m not referring to the politically-charged concept of ‘moving jobs overseas,’ but to the process whereby a business transfers to more efficient providers those functions over which it does not have particular expertise or are not mission critical.