23 Apr 2004

Posted at 16:44h in The Friday Brief by
J. R. R. Tolkein reminds us that patience is integral to any great undertaking and accomplishment.  For the past year, we have watched almost every notable statistic available to determine the current and likely future health of this economy.  Most have been mixed to mildly positive with just enough question marks to keep overconfidence in check.  The past twelve months are remarkable in their stark contrast to the mood and assumptions of the late nineties, when virtually everything was rosy beyond historical precedent.  

16 Apr 2004

Posted at 16:47h in The Friday Brief by
Corporate earnings for the first quarter of 2004 released to date suggest a favorable trend is developing.  As of today, 242 companies of the Dow Jones US Total Market Index have reported and are up and average of 28%.  This total represents less than 15% of 1,632 stocks in the index, but if the trend continues, first quarter 2004 results will compare well with the 24% average gain of S&P 500 fourth quarter 2003 earnings. 

02 Apr 2004

Posted at 16:49h in The Friday Brief by
The U.S. economy added 308,000 jobs in March, almost three times economists’ expectations and the largest gain since April 2000.  Treasury Secretary John Snow said “strength is apparent across the board, including strong job growth in construction, retail, and business services.”  The increase follows gains that were revised upward to 46,000 for February and 159,000 for January.  Manufacturing may soon be joining the party as this was the first month without a decline since August 2000.  The Unemployment rate rose to 5.7% from 5.6% as more people returned to the labor force to seek jobs. 

26 Mar 2004

Posted at 15:27h in The Friday Brief by
If the majority of Americans feel uneasy about their employment status as the media and certain politicians claim, they don’t show it when it comes to buying homes and taking on larger mortgages.  New home sales for February surprised to the upside while mortgage applications were down only .2% from historic highs.  Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nation’s two largest purchasers of mortgages, are forecasting another record year for home sales amid low interest rates.  The 30-year fixed mortgage is within a half a percent of the all-time low.