05 Dec 2008

Posted at 13:09h in The Friday Brief by
As of this writing, we find the S&P 500 down 8.6% for the week and the month of December, so far. Yet it remains 10% above its intra-day low reached Friday two weeks ago. The economic news has been as bad as expected and government counter-moves have been about as good as could be expected, with lame-duck limbo in full swing. Both Democrats and Republicans are warning Paulson that he may not get the additional $350 billion TARP funds.

21 Nov 2008

Posted at 13:20h in The Friday Brief by
It comes as absolutely no surprise that the massive bankruptcies and bailouts of September and October were enough to freeze both consumers and businesses in their tracks. The government numbers for the next couple of weeks are nothing more than a post mortem exercise to confirm the obvious. However, as we move forward a couple of weeks to get beyond the period of absolute shock, the reports will begin to provide clues about the possible breadth and depth of this recession.

14 Nov 2008

Posted at 13:29h in Briefs about our Process, The Friday Brief by
Information travels faster than ever now which tends to amplify panics and crises. The natural herd tendency to sell or buy is fanned by the rapid flow of news, often in its raw state. Globally linked computerized exchanges make buying and selling more efficient and faster than ever. What is crystal clear in this time of crisis and uncertainty is that we have no control of the markets (short of shutting them down). They are bigger and more powerful than any government and they will find their equilibriums in all circumstances. Predicting or timing them is all but impossible, especially over full cycles.

08 Nov 2008

Posted at 13:40h in The Friday Brief by
Those of us over 40 don’t need reading glasses to know how bad the news is; headlines are full of it. And there is plenty to come in the weeks and months ahead. The economy is collapsing at an astonishing rate as we enter the self-perpetuating recessionary cycle. Banks aren’t lending because they are afraid of the coming recession and the recession is growing deeper because banks aren’t lending. Businesses are firing because demand is evaporating and demand is evaporating because businesses are firing. House prices are falling because no one is buying, and no one is buying because prices are falling. The worse the news gets, the more the consumer hunkers down.