It has been easy to focus on the numerous hurdles our economy has endured over the past several years and to assume that new ones will continue to manifest themselves, keeping us in the doldrums.  But, what if things started going right, or even mostly right, for the next several years?  One might argue that conditions have never been better in history for growth than they are today. 

Have you noticed that the stock market is doing consistently better in spite of the continuing dreary economic news?  One reason is that we have largely escaped the first quarter earnings cycle without a single major blowup or negative surprise; corporate earnings are coming in better than expected.  What’s more, analysts have shown no signs of cutting their second, third, or fourth quarter earnings estimates. 

These days, pretense doesn’t enter the equation when people talk about their money, their livelihood, their personal well-being or that of their families.  I’ve had many a “heart to heart” with clients and friends on just those subjects over the past several months and I’m sure you have too.  People have been scared economically and physically for what seems like a very long time.  Household budgets are tight, jobs are scarce, and people seem to be hunkered down. 

The mood on Wall Street is improving, albeit slightly.  General market improvement comes ahead of the economic reports provided by the government that substantially reflect the view that the lead-up to the war with Iraq had a significant dampening effect on the economy.  Investors seem more optimistic as they learn that many companies are reporting better-than-expected earnings.