08 Oct 2010

Posted at 16:41h in The Friday Brief by
As the manufacturing side of the economy shows signs of fatigue, the much larger service sector appears to be waking up. Tuesday’s strong report sent the Dow Jones Industrials up almost 200 points or 1.8%. But the pickup is not nearly fast enough to generate sufficient job growth to cut into the 9.6% unemployment rate reported today.  

01 Oct 2010

Posted at 16:45h in The Friday Brief by
September’s gain of 8.92% (total return) for the S&P 500 index represented the largest increase for the month since 1936. The most widely used gauge of value, the price/earnings ratio shows stocks are still reasonably valued at 12.5 times projected earnings for the next 12 months. Projections are for earnings to grow 36% this year and 15% next. In the past two weeks individuals’ confidence in stocks has risen the most since March 2009, according to the American Association of Individual Investors. The March 2009 rise in sentiment preceded an 82% rise in stock values which peaked most recently in April of this year.

24 Sep 2010

Posted at 16:22h in The Friday Brief by
Once again a headline issue with both near and long-term impact on this country’s economic future was decided by the majority party, completely on political terms; this time it was for personal survival. Going back a few months it was in the name of economic survival. The extravagant American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 was supposed to save the day. Some derided the $787 billion bill as “Speaker Pelosi’s Payoffs and Pork Bill.” In fact it provided limited if any stimulus impact. And the crowning accomplishment of the majority party: The Affordable Healthcare for America Act. This massive sea-change of American culture and economy was literally rammed down the throats not only of the minority party in Congress, but the American people.

20 Sep 2010

Posted at 14:40h in The Friday Brief by
Is the economy falling into recession or is it merely stalling? The S&P 500 is off its April high by 12% while the rally in the 10-year US Treasury has driven yields to 2.55%, the lowest in 17 months. Yesterday the government’s leading economic indicators showed an increase of .1% in July provides hope that the economy is merely in a stall. But jobs, housing, and even manufacturing which has been a bright spot for the economy were more worrisome as they each declined this week. While the economic numbers were mostly negative this week, there is a bright spot. Intel’s acquisition of security software maker McAfee brings the August total of announced takeovers to more than $175 billion. Acquisitions are on a pace for August to surpass March as the biggest month for deals this year, according to Bloomberg. The month is typically the slowest.