If you have any exposure at all to the US economy, whether you run a corporation or you are raising money for the school PTA, you have no doubt noticed a certain reservation among people to spend, invest, or give their money. August proved a tough month for the economy. Confidence crushers such as the debt ceiling debate, the unprecedented downgrade of US Treasuries from AAA to AA+ by Standard & Poor’s, a plunging stock market, an earthquake strong enough to suggest attack for many in DC and NY, and an east coast hurricane that literally quieted the “city that never sleeps” all fueled a growing sense of pessimism. 

Today, the government revised its assessment of the US economy’s growth for the second quarter downward more than economists expected this morning. GDP grew at only 1%, down from a previous estimate of 1.3% in July.  But the underlying numbers were more positive. Final sales of domestic product improved to a 1.1% annualized rate from 0.0% in the first quarter. Capital expenditures were revised to 7.9% from 5.7% and non-residential fixed investment was revised to 15.7% from 8.1%. 

    A headline which appeared on Bloomberg’s website yesterday “Stock Volatility to Leave Lasting Scars on Investors’ Psyche” highlights a concern that a growing number of investors are leaving stocks for good. Last week the S&P experienced an unprecedented four-day span of volatility in which the large-cap index fell and rose by at least 4% each day. In a panic, investors pulled $23.5 billion from US equity funds, the most since the financial crisis began in October 2008, according to the Investment Company Institute. 

Since the slide in equity prices that began July 22nd, US stocks have lost some $2.8 trillion dollars in value and roughly $4 trillion worldwide. Following yesterday’s rally, the MSCI Total US Market Index is down 13.5% and the blue chip Down Jones index is down 12.1%. Investors slugged it out this week as news gyrated on earnings, interest rates from the Fed, jobs data, and European bond woes. The Dow experienced an unprecedented four-day ride points-wise; down 634, up 429, down 519, and up 423.