11 Jan 2008

Posted at 16:18h in The Friday Brief by
The recession camp is growing as many large brokerage and bank economists toss their hats into the ring. Goldman Sacs yesterday joined Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley in projecting a possible recession in theUS. Goldman's economists predicted the economy will shrink 1% in the next six months and grow 0.8% for the year as the economy did in the last recession of 2001.

04 Jan 2008

Posted at 16:21h in The Friday Brief by
Call it a slump, a slowdown, or a recession, whatever you want, but its here. The last shoe has dropped – employment. Today’s government report of hiring slowing faster than forecast and unemployment rising to a two-year high, employment one of the last strengths of the economy is faltering.

21 Dec 2007

Posted at 16:24h in The Friday Brief by
As economists grapple with where this economy is going the American consumer continues to surprise and amaze. The latest government figures, released today show that consumer spending rose considerably more than forecast in November. Purchases gained 1.1% in November, well ahead of .7% estimate. That is the highest rate of increase since the 1.2% increase in May 2004. It helps allay fears that the economy is falling so fast it cannot avoid recession.

14 Dec 2007

Posted at 16:28h in The Friday Brief by
TheUSeconomy will have to gut it out from here without additional help from the Fed or the government. Today’s inflation report shows that the Federal Reserve had little flexibility to lower beyond the quarter of a percent they announced on Wednesday fearing inflation and a falling dollar. As to government actions; early signs are that credit bailout efforts will fall short of easing tight credit. InWashington, political wrestling has already stalled and likely killed relief from the alternative minimum tax. There appears scant hope that a Democratically controlled House and Senate will continue Bush’s tax cuts. So the combined prospects of higher taxes, tighter credit, already high gasoline, falling house prices, slowing consumer demand, and higher prices on everything else if inflation takes hold, almost surely will be enough to stall theUSeconomy.