16 Jan 2009

Posted at 15:41h in The Friday Brief by
New revelations about the weakness of America’s banks have kept the pressure on stocks. The S&P 500 is down 5.2% at the moment but remains 14% above the market’s low reached November 20, 2008. A major reason stocks are holding up in the face of relentless economic news is their yield. Dividends paid on S&P 500 stocks are roughly 3.5%, which compare very favorably to the 10-year Treasury yield of 2.4%. Stocks are also up on investors’ high hopes for Obama’s economic team and their ultimate stimulus package.

09 Jan 2009

Posted at 15:43h in The Friday Brief by
High hopes for a fresh new year, a new Administration, and a massive new stimulus plan gave the markets new life for a few weeks. We wonder though whether investors’ expectations will withstand the continuing drone of bad economic reports, surely to come for the next several months. The early read suggests yes, expectations for recovery late this year are holding.

31 Dec 2008

Posted at 16:44h in The Friday Brief by
If commodities were traded for black eyed peas, you can bet they would be setting price records about now. Black-eyed peas have long been associated with good luck, particularly in the South and given the bad luck we suffered this year, folks will likely be pulling out all the stops to ensure a better one in 2009. Should you add black-eyed peas to your investment planning? 

19 Dec 2008

Posted at 16:46h in The Friday Brief by
The drumbeat of worsening economic news on jobs, corporate profits, bank downgrades, auto makers, and housing continued this week, yet the market is higher by 1.6%. It was a week of new records as inflation fell 1.7% in November, faster than at any time since records began in 1947. Construction of single-family homes dropped 16.9 percent to a record-low 441,000. Oil by the barrel has fallen 75% from its record high of $147.27 reached only five months ago on July 11th. But the most remarkable records were made in US Treasuries. Yesterday, the yields on two, five, 10, and 30-year US government debt reached the lowest levels since the Treasury began regular sales of the securities. The Fed dropped the target on their main rate to near zero on Wednesday. We saw the yield on three-month Treasury bill actually fall to a negative return.