Investors face a myriad of challenges today, including record low interest rates, stagnant growth in developed economies which are increasingly burdened by entitlement promises and growing debts, instability in the Middle East, and a level of uncertainty over tax and regulatory policy which is virtually unparalleled in history. But as daunting as these challenges are, they are not even close to their greatest threat. The most debilitating investment challenges lie within, and are compounded by the very financial  services industry they seek for guidance, an industry that is all too eager to capitalize on those weaknesses.

Note: Our office and markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day.

Trends suggest direction, tendency, and strength of forces driving events or conditions we consider important enough to observe and track. As we embark on a new year, perhaps it would be useful to check in on some of the major trends impacting our lives and investments.

Economists disagree about how much uncertainty Washington, Europe and other factors have cost the US economy in potential, but most would agree the cost has been significant. As the Federal Reserve has all but exhausted its stimulus measures, Ben Bernanke, Simpson and Bowles, and so many others continue to plead with Washington to strike a bargain and help ignite this economy, only to be answered with mere band aid solutions.

The opening salvos of the deficit war of 2013 have landed with only modest economic and political damage inflicted so far. Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden met under a white flag in the waning hours of 2012 to craft a brief truce to avoid tax hikes that would have crippled the economy. The vast majority of Americans, 99% of them, will keep their current tax rates, though all will see their payroll taxes rise by 2% after a two-year holiday. Unfortunately though, nothing was done to address the nation’s biggest threat – the deficit. The US government still borrows 36 cents of every dollar it spends, at a rate of $1 trillion a year. Those who would change that are ready for a fight.