10 Aug 2001

Posted at 13:52h in The Friday Brief by
As I write this letter, the market is falling rather dramatically.  It was triggered by the PPI release this morning which was down considerably below expectations, primarily on falling energy prices.  Since then, the newswires show that 50 U.S. and British aircraft have attacked three Iraqi military targets.  Given the recent terrorist and military hostilities in Israel, the market undoubtedly fears worse trouble in the Middle East. 

03 Aug 2001

Posted at 13:59h in The Friday Brief by
Evidence is mounting that we may be very close to the low point in the economy.  The cyclical recovery is likely to be more muted than earlier expected, but it looks doubtful that we will see a full-scale retreat.   Six reductions in the overnight bank-lending rate by the Federal Reserve and government mailings of advance tax refund checks should provide consumers with reason to keep spending. 

20 Jul 2001

Posted at 14:09h in The Friday Brief by
Increasingly, economists are saying the worst may be behind us, but recovery is not clearly in sight.  Mr. Greenspan’s comments to Congress yesterday pointed to the possibility of a turn in the economy in the second half of this year, but he warned that the current malaise could likely continue for some time to come.  Recent company earnings reports have not been as bad as feared while revenues did disappoint more often.  Managers in general have done an excellent job cutting expenses in the face of this dramatic slowdown, but their reluctance or inability to provide any meaningful guidance about the near-term future weighed on stock prices. 

13 Jul 2001

Posted at 14:16h in The Friday Brief by
Economic News: Mostly good news this week pointing to continued recovery in the economy Wholesale inventories in the U.S. increased 0.2% in May to $302.62 billion on the largest monthly increase since November, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.  A consensus of analysts had projected a 0.1% increase.  Manufacturers are pushing the inventories from their shelves to those of wholesalers through “good deals”.   Meanwhile, wholesale sales slipped 0.1% from April to $229.82 billion. Analysts had expected a 0.3% increase for the month.