03 Aug 2001

Posted at 13:59h in The Friday Brief by
Evidence is mounting that we may be very close to the low point in the economy.  The cyclical recovery is likely to be more muted than earlier expected, but it looks doubtful that we will see a full-scale retreat.   Six reductions in the overnight bank-lending rate by the Federal Reserve and government mailings of advance tax refund checks should provide consumers with reason to keep spending. 

20 Jul 2001

Posted at 14:09h in The Friday Brief by
Increasingly, economists are saying the worst may be behind us, but recovery is not clearly in sight.  Mr. Greenspan’s comments to Congress yesterday pointed to the possibility of a turn in the economy in the second half of this year, but he warned that the current malaise could likely continue for some time to come.  Recent company earnings reports have not been as bad as feared while revenues did disappoint more often.  Managers in general have done an excellent job cutting expenses in the face of this dramatic slowdown, but their reluctance or inability to provide any meaningful guidance about the near-term future weighed on stock prices. 

13 Jul 2001

Posted at 14:16h in The Friday Brief by
Economic News: Mostly good news this week pointing to continued recovery in the economy Wholesale inventories in the U.S. increased 0.2% in May to $302.62 billion on the largest monthly increase since November, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.  A consensus of analysts had projected a 0.1% increase.  Manufacturers are pushing the inventories from their shelves to those of wholesalers through “good deals”.   Meanwhile, wholesale sales slipped 0.1% from April to $229.82 billion. Analysts had expected a 0.3% increase for the month.

03 Jul 2001

Posted at 14:44h in The Friday Brief by
All data last week provided upside surprises, a rare event over these past few months when the overwhelming dynamic was the economy's adjustment to the overhang of excess inventory. The data not only suggest an turning point but also support the notion that the weakest quarter in the cycle was Q2.