28 Sep 2001

Posted at 09:22h in The Friday Brief by
To wish for something with the expectation of its fulfillment Our expectations for a market recovery were growing stronger in the days before the attacks as factory orders began showing improvement.  After the markets’ week long close investors sold stocks with renewed fears of recession.  The theme among pundits was that we were probably in recession before the attacks and that likelihood seems almost certain now.  Experts further agree that the recession will be deeper than before, but of a shorter duration.  There are several rationales for a shorter, deeper, or “V shaped” recession.   The consumer, credited with holding this economy afloat for months, is undoubtedly shaken by recent events and will likely slow his spending.  In effect, consumer confidence dropped in moments instead of grinding down slowly, over a period of weeks under the constant drone of layoffs and disappointing corporate profits.  So, we have reached lower consumer confidence numbers much faster than we would have before the tragedies.

21 Sep 2001

Posted at 09:33h in The Friday Brief by
Have they won?  Not if you listened to our President last night and believed his resolve to win this war.  They have not won if you believe in the resolve of the American people.  They have not won if you believe the world leaders will be “with us” and not “with the terrorists.”  Indeed because of strong leadership by President Bush, his able cabinet, and a united Congress, as well as strong support from our allies, we hold the hope that the grip of terrorism on the civilized world will be broken and eventually eradicated.   

14 Sep 2001

Posted at 09:40h in The Friday Brief by
While our flags fly at half-mast and our dollar tumbles to six-month lows at the hands of foreign investors loosing confidence in this country, a new resolve is galvanizing Americans.  New Yorkers’ tough persona has been betrayed by an extreme outpouring of emotion and volunteerism.   Americans are coming from all over the country to the aid of their countrymen in Manhattan and Washington. 

07 Sep 2001

Posted at 09:44h in The Friday Brief by
Bear markets remind us just how devastating market forces can be to individual companies’ stock prices, regardless of their individual merits.  The degree to which pessimism and doubt gripped this economy and market surprised most market followers.  But with all this attention on the markets and the economic numbers one might miss the trees for the forest – COMPELLING VALUES have been created in the wake of the market’s (NASDAQ) crash.  While it is generally agreed that the values of information and communications companies in March of 2000 were unrealistically high, an equally strong case can be made that they are now unrealistically low.