08 Feb 2002

Posted at 16:11h in The Friday Brief by
Remember the sensation caused by the all-girl rock bands in the early sixties?  Doo-Wop ‘classics’ like He’s a Rebel and Da Doo Ron Ron by the Crystals and The Leader of the Pack by the Shangri Las filled the airways.  The early 2000’s might well be remembered for the exploits of Mr. Kenneth Lay, the rebel, and his pack of execs and auditors, who have wrought their own brand of havoc on our culture.  It’s hard to go anywhere without hearing people talk about Enron and its massive and complex web of greed and deceit. 

01 Feb 2002

Posted at 16:16h in The Friday Brief by
As we pointed out last week, the ‘January Effect’ never materialized.  Typically, January’s market volume is among the highest of the year as 401-K’s and corporate retirement plans receive their largest contributions.  In addition, investors come back to the markets in January to replace stock they sold for tax-losses at the end of the prior year.  The scarcity of enthusiastic buyers and a general malaise among investors weighed heavily on last month’s markets.  The S&P 500 declined 1.5%, the Dow declined .91%, and the NASDAQ fell by .82%.  The S&P 600, the index of small companies managed a gain of just less than 1%.  During the five Januarys prior this one, funds flowing into equity mutual funds averaged 8.8 billion dollars in the first two weeks.  The first two weeks of this January saw the exit of $4.7 billion from equity mutual funds, according to TrimTabs, a fund tracking service. 

25 Jan 2002

Posted at 16:20h in The Friday Brief by
There is an old adage on Wall Street that says, ‘as goes January, so goes the year.’  The indicator has accurately predicted the market’s direction for the full year in 48 of the past 51 years.  The Vietnam War affected the results of two of the three incorrectly predicted years just as September 11th may impact this year’s results.  But if the indicator has any validity at all, it doesn’t look like 2002 will provide the comeback we were hoping for. 

18 Jan 2002

Posted at 16:24h in The Friday Brief by
Earnings season stirs the market like few other forces, but especially in these times of economic uncertainty.  Investors and analysts hang on every word uttered as managers discuss their results for the quarter and hint at what their future might bring.  Body language, pauses, annunciations, and emphases are all noted and endlessly scrutinized.  Early in the week, the news was decidedly negative as Intel, Juniper Networks, and RF Micro, followed by General Motors, JP Morgan, and others disappointed with their earnings releases. Then on Wednesday afternoon, the tide shifted with positive earnings news from Advanced Micro, Compaq, Symantec fueling the evening market programs.  On Thursday, the markets turned positive, reversing their four-day slide.