05 Oct 2001

Posted at 16:15h in The Friday Brief by
“If you look at life one way, there is always cause for alarm.”  -Elizabeth Bowen, Irish novelist That the economy is ailing is no surprise to anyone.  Unemployment statistics, additional corporate layoffs, and earnings disappointments are part of every news segment.  While there is plenty of support for the negative case, there is also cause for optimism.  Many strategists are now saying that the market is at or near the bottom.  They say that it is too late to be defensive in portfolio makeup, and that the risk/reward ratio now favors being more invested in equities than bonds.  Even the mostly pessimistic Morgan Stanley strategist, Barton Biggs came out last week in favor of buying stocks now.  The economists at Credit Suisse First Boston make the following points;

28 Sep 2001

Posted at 09:22h in The Friday Brief by
To wish for something with the expectation of its fulfillment Our expectations for a market recovery were growing stronger in the days before the attacks as factory orders began showing improvement.  After the markets’ week long close investors sold stocks with renewed fears of recession.  The theme among pundits was that we were probably in recession before the attacks and that likelihood seems almost certain now.  Experts further agree that the recession will be deeper than before, but of a shorter duration.  There are several rationales for a shorter, deeper, or “V shaped” recession.   The consumer, credited with holding this economy afloat for months, is undoubtedly shaken by recent events and will likely slow his spending.  In effect, consumer confidence dropped in moments instead of grinding down slowly, over a period of weeks under the constant drone of layoffs and disappointing corporate profits.  So, we have reached lower consumer confidence numbers much faster than we would have before the tragedies.

21 Sep 2001

Posted at 09:33h in The Friday Brief by
Have they won?  Not if you listened to our President last night and believed his resolve to win this war.  They have not won if you believe in the resolve of the American people.  They have not won if you believe the world leaders will be “with us” and not “with the terrorists.”  Indeed because of strong leadership by President Bush, his able cabinet, and a united Congress, as well as strong support from our allies, we hold the hope that the grip of terrorism on the civilized world will be broken and eventually eradicated.   

14 Sep 2001

Posted at 09:40h in The Friday Brief by
While our flags fly at half-mast and our dollar tumbles to six-month lows at the hands of foreign investors loosing confidence in this country, a new resolve is galvanizing Americans.  New Yorkers’ tough persona has been betrayed by an extreme outpouring of emotion and volunteerism.   Americans are coming from all over the country to the aid of their countrymen in Manhattan and Washington.