17 May 2002

Posted at 15:43h in The Friday Brief by
Benjamin Graham, called the father of fundamental investing, said, “in the short run the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”  A problem investors face today is that the ‘short run’ seems to be more like the long run.  Just how much longer the wrenching ups and downs will go, no one can say, but it is clear that the longer it goes, more people leave in disgust. 

10 May 2002

Posted at 15:48h in The Friday Brief by

“It was the best of times, its was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us . . .”  Charles Dickens – A Tale of Two Cities

The best of times seems like a distant memory in so many ways, particularly as we focus on all the bad news out there and ignore the good that peeks through occasionally.  There’s plenty of ‘darkness’ adding to our confusion, but there are hints of light too.  On Tuesday, Cisco’s Chairman John Chambers spoke of improving business.  His comments and his company’s results sent the markets soaring, as short-sellers covered their bets against optimism and buyers bet that the pessimism might be waning.  If only for a day, optimism was openly discussed and celebrated and the negative took a brief respite. 

03 May 2002

Posted at 15:51h in The Friday Brief by
My wife recently constructed a beautiful labyrinth in our garden.  Labyrinths have been around for thousands of years and are found in almost all religious traditions as well as cultures including Native American, Greek, Celtic and Mayan.  Like Stonehenge and the pyramids, they are magical geometric forms that define sacred space.  When one walks a labyrinth, he meanders back and forth, turning 180 degrees each time he enters a new circuit.  Changes in direction induce shifts in states of awareness. 

26 Apr 2002

Posted at 15:53h in The Friday Brief by
Another word for risk is volatility – specifically negative volatility.  Webster defines volatility as the tendency to vary often or widely, as in price.  Obviously, we worry more when stocks vary downward as they do in bear markets.  April and October are the market's most volatile months.  It is during these months that companies report their first and third calendar quarters.  The first quarter is important as it sets the tone of the year’s earnings expectations.  By October, enough of the year is ‘on the books’ for the company to give a rough idea of what the year will actually look like.  It is a time when ‘confessions’ are made if the company was too optimistic earlier in the year.  It also used to be a time when management expressed excitement if they had an exceptionally good year.  SEC Regulation “Full and Fair Disclosure” has effectively minimized those wildly optimistic statements because of the liability brought if they are not met.