25 Oct 2002

Posted at 16:35h in The Friday Brief by
We are nearing the end of October – Hallelujah!  EVERY bear market since the end of WWII has ended before November 1st of that bear market year.  EVERY seasonally strong period (November to April) in the second year of the presidential election cycle (like this one) has produced an up market.  And as Don Hays points out, we know that every time since the 1930’s that six-months of Dow weakness equaled or exceeded by the prior six months, is followed by a six-month period producing gains of at least 40%. 

18 Oct 2002

Posted at 12:49h in The Friday Brief by
Is the rally of the last few days for real – is the market bottom in place – do stocks rise from here – is the Bear dead?  Earnings drive stock prices in the long run and those reported so far this quarter suggest substantial improvement.  Nokia, for instance, said that they saw earnings stabilize in the second quarter and now believe by third quarter results that the turnaround is for real.  IBM reported an earnings increase of over 10% in a very difficult information technology-spending environment.  UnitedHealthcare said its earnings rose over 53% on cost-cutting and increased premiums.  Numerous others today and the preceding several days have beaten their earnings goals. 

11 Oct 2002

Posted at 12:51h in The Friday Brief by
If one watches CNBC or CNN for any length of time he would likely come away thinking that the stock market is on its final legs, and for good.  When things are bad, it seems that those who are best at pointing out how bad things are and could become, get the bear’s share of the spotlight.  Granted, there is plenty of bad news out there, but the good news is not getting through the dense bad fog.  A significant part of the good news is that many of the extremes being reached in today’s stock and bond markets are actually positive signals for better times ahead. 

04 Oct 2002

Posted at 13:09h in The Friday Brief by
Having just been in the mountains of West Virginia I was reminded of some very interesting parallels to today’s stock market.  From the mountaintop it seems one can see forever.  The view is spectacular, the air is fresh and clear, and problems seem miles away.  But down in the valleys everything is close and problems seem omnipresent.  Travel can be treacherous on the tight sharp switchbacks.  Just yards ahead around the next curve there may be a ten-ton coal truck barreling down the hill pushing the limits of control.