18 Oct 2002

Posted at 12:49h in The Friday Brief by
Is the rally of the last few days for real – is the market bottom in place – do stocks rise from here – is the Bear dead?  Earnings drive stock prices in the long run and those reported so far this quarter suggest substantial improvement.  Nokia, for instance, said that they saw earnings stabilize in the second quarter and now believe by third quarter results that the turnaround is for real.  IBM reported an earnings increase of over 10% in a very difficult information technology-spending environment.  UnitedHealthcare said its earnings rose over 53% on cost-cutting and increased premiums.  Numerous others today and the preceding several days have beaten their earnings goals. 

11 Oct 2002

Posted at 12:51h in The Friday Brief by
If one watches CNBC or CNN for any length of time he would likely come away thinking that the stock market is on its final legs, and for good.  When things are bad, it seems that those who are best at pointing out how bad things are and could become, get the bear’s share of the spotlight.  Granted, there is plenty of bad news out there, but the good news is not getting through the dense bad fog.  A significant part of the good news is that many of the extremes being reached in today’s stock and bond markets are actually positive signals for better times ahead. 

04 Oct 2002

Posted at 13:09h in The Friday Brief by
Having just been in the mountains of West Virginia I was reminded of some very interesting parallels to today’s stock market.  From the mountaintop it seems one can see forever.  The view is spectacular, the air is fresh and clear, and problems seem miles away.  But down in the valleys everything is close and problems seem omnipresent.  Travel can be treacherous on the tight sharp switchbacks.  Just yards ahead around the next curve there may be a ten-ton coal truck barreling down the hill pushing the limits of control. 

27 Sep 2002

Posted at 13:38h in The Friday Brief by
The third quarter is drawing to a close and almost everyone in stocks lost money.  European stocks had some of their biggest losses of the past 15 years led by Europe’s largest economy, Germany.  The German DAX lost 32%, the largest since its introduction in 1987.  The U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 17% for its largest loss since 1987.  France’s CAC 40 fell 24%.  Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 12% and reached a 19-year low during the third quarter.  Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan all lost as much as 10%.  Contrary to the trend, Pakistan rose 16% in response to U.S. economic sanctions being lifted.  In Latin America, Argentina gained 13%, but Brazil declined 38%, the world’s worst performance for the third quarter.  At home, the S&P 500 lost 14%, falling to a 4-year low and the NASDAQ fell 16.4% to a six-year low.