These days, pretense doesn’t enter the equation when people talk about their money, their livelihood, their personal well-being or that of their families.  I’ve had many a “heart to heart” with clients and friends on just those subjects over the past several months and I’m sure you have too.  People have been scared economically and physically for what seems like a very long time.  Household budgets are tight, jobs are scarce, and people seem to be hunkered down. 

The mood on Wall Street is improving, albeit slightly.  General market improvement comes ahead of the economic reports provided by the government that substantially reflect the view that the lead-up to the war with Iraq had a significant dampening effect on the economy.  Investors seem more optimistic as they learn that many companies are reporting better-than-expected earnings.

Seemingly, the war and its commensurate uncertainties no longer hold such sway over the market.  However, that could change in a moment.  Focus has shifted to factors investors are more accustomed to addressing, like earnings.  The season when companies report their quarterly earnings is upon us.  So far, 33 companies that comprise the S&P 500 index have reported.  The next two weeks are the busiest of the season with over 300 large companies reporting their first quarter earnings.  Outside of General Electric today and Yahoo! this past Wednesday, there were no earthshaking earnings reports this week.

The proof of the negative impact of the war on the economy came this week as the government released several major historical indicators.  Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors showed rather dramatic contraction, to levels not seen since October 2001.  Both business leaders and consumers alike continue to delay their investment and spending decisions in the face of the Iraqi war.