17 Oct 2003

Posted at 11:03h in The Friday Brief by
Last night, EBay reported a 69% increase in earnings for the fourth quarter and a 55% in the number of active users.  But it was their more conservative year-ahead guidance that sent the stock and the market lower in trading this morning.  The company suggested that 2004 earnings would likely come in around 98 cents a share, less than the $1.05 analysts’ profit estimate of analysts surveyed by Thompson Financial.  Money manager Paul Cook of Munder Capital suggested that Ebay “may make more investments than expected in growth opportunities, or may be leaving room to exceed the guidance.”

10 Oct 2003

Posted at 11:05h in The Friday Brief by
A perfect “10” this recovery is not.  On this tenth day of the tenth month business leaders, investors, and economists remain confused by the indicators of this economic recovery.  While the government reports are released like clockwork, the information they contain is not quite so predictable.  Yes, the overall economic trend remains positive and new data increasingly confirm the trend’s direction, but outliers and contradictions continue to confuse expectations.  Fortunately, we are at the early stages of the third quarter earnings cycle.  In the coming weeks we will gain a better understanding of the health of American business and their managers’ expectations for the future.   

03 Oct 2003

Posted at 11:09h in The Friday Brief by
Not too long ago I listened to an Australian gentleman who was interviewed on a radio talk show.  When asked about his experiences inAmerica, he seemed very impressed with our culture, infrastructure, opportunities, etc.  But he concluded his complimentary remarks with a rather telling observation that “no one in this country indicates.”  That’s Australian-speak for ‘uses one’s turn signal.’

26 Sep 2003

Posted at 11:12h in The Friday Brief by
All of this week’s economic data has been released in the last two days.  That conveniently coincided with my return yesterday after spending a few days on my annual trip to the impoverished and twice recently flooded coalfields of West Virginia.  In light of our recent discussions ofAmerica’s waning manufacturing presence, I was struck by the awesome cost of inflexibility in a rapidly changing world.