27 Feb 2004

Posted at 15:44h in The Friday Brief by
Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence numbers reported an unexpected erosion of confidence in the economy.  During February as the Democratic candidates marched through each state in their presidential quest their criticism of the economy grew louder and more focused.  As jobs or the inability of the current economy to create substantial job growth seems to resonate so well with some voters, politicians’ criticisms of the economy and the current administration have grown louder and, on occasion, outlandish.  Political experts suggest that negative campaigning is not only effective, but may be the only way to win modern elections.  But, there is a cost – the words are carried far and wide and more people than ever seem to accept them at face value.  

20 Feb 2004

Posted at 15:48h in The Friday Brief by
Remaining economic and market bears may soon be forced into hibernation.  Even the most obstinate of naysayers may have to acquiesce to the improving economic outlook.  As is the case every four years, the primaries have taken center stage in the media and most of what we hear is the obligatory bashing of the economy and the current administration’s economic policies. 

13 Feb 2004

Posted at 16:06h in The Friday Brief by
In his testimony before committees of the House of Representatives on Wednesday and the Senate yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan delivered essentially the same message.  The extraordinary pace of productivity has reduced the need for companies to hire workers, but the lengthy spell of jobless growth is "atypical" compared to previous cycles.  In his view employment should be "expanding at a reasonably good clip within a short period of time." 

06 Feb 2004

Posted at 16:09h in The Friday Brief by
The headline Unemployment Rate, announced this morning, fell by a tenth of a percent to 5.6%, the lowest since January 2002.  But today’s focus is on the number of jobs created.  The change in non-farm (service) payrolls was up by 112,000 jobs, the biggest jump in three years, but less than expected.  Everyone from economists, to analysts, from bond traders to stock traders, and I suspect the White House expected a bigger number.  Why?  Virtually every measure of growth in theU.S.economy points to increased job formation.