01 Oct 2004

Posted at 16:30h in The Friday Brief by
Good riddance to the third calendar quarter which ended yesterday with the S&P 500 down .70% and the NASDAQ down 7.24%.  The worst of the declines came in July and were caused in part by rising crude oil prices as well as disruptions caused by four major hurricanes in the South and East.  Investors spent all of July and half of August ratcheting down their expectations for growth; as car sales, home sales, consumer confidence, and consumer spending all weakened. 

24 Sep 2004

Posted at 15:58h in The Friday Brief by
This week’s batch of economic news continued mixed as it has been for the last few weeks.  A clearly good signal came today though, in the government’s report of Durable Goods Orders.  It showed that the nation’s manufacturing economy is gaining strength.  With the volatile transportation segment removed, durable goods increased a whopping 2.3%, almost tripling economists’ estimates for the month.  Manufacturing accounts for a third of the U.S. economy and remains the “engine of the global economy,” according to Bloomberg News.  Our manufacturing segment alone exceeds the individual gross domestic product of all but four nations: the U.K., Germany, Japan, and the U.S.  American factories shipped more than half of the world’s global exports in 2003.  

17 Sep 2004

Posted at 16:01h in The Friday Brief by
The slow-down of the second quarter appears to be behind us.  Retail sales, excluding autos, rose for the fourth month in August.  Consumers remain cautious largely due to oil prices, but they continue to spend nevertheless.  Same-store retail sales were up 1% in September.  Consumer spending, which represents two thirds of the economy, rose at a 1.6% rate during the second quarter.  The consumer should remain healthy as the acceleration of job growth numbers will continue to improve income and confidence. 

10 Sep 2004

Posted at 16:04h in The Friday Brief by
Treated almost with a superstitious caution, the “I” word is avoided in conversation and print almost to the extent that it is feared by financial investors.  To say it is to give it credibility and the spread of that belief might even cause it.  If a single company is successful in passing on price increases to customers so that others follow, then industries, then sectors, then, ba da bing INFLATION!