Our prayers are with those who suffer on the Gulf coast from the destruction of Hurricane Katrina and those who are there to help them.  While there is significant coverage of the sensational events stemming from the darker side of human nature, the larger and more important story is of the suffering of thousands who have lost everything and of the efforts of thousands more who are there to help them.  Once again, we have an opportunity as to people to come together to help our fellow citizens and be an example to the world.  Perhaps the greatest challenge so far has come from the Reverend Franklin Graham as he calls on churches throughout the country to invite some of those homeless into their homes and to help them get them back on their feet. 

The week was all about oil – again.  Prices rose as Tropical Storm Katrina threatened oil production in theGulf of Mexico.  On Wednesday the price of a barrel of crude rose to $67.32, a new record.  Today as Katrina heads into the Gulf, it trades at $67.55.  Global demand for oil is now so high that any previously inconsequential disruption can threaten the supply of the irreplaceable energy source, at least in the fears of traders.

On most every front, housing, manufacturing, jobs, consumer demand, jobs, and corporate profits, the economy looks strong.  Growth should be sustainable for the foreseeable future, as long as the Fed doesn’t go too far with their rate increases.  Unfortunately, recent inflation data is not sufficiently benign to suggest the Fed may slow their pace any time soon.  On the positive side though, oil prices which topped $67.00 last Friday may have peaked. 

Based on comments from the Federal Reserve earlier this week and their actions in the previous weeks, it appears rates are headed considerably higher.  They say they believe higher short term rates and the possibility of an inverted yield curve will not create a recession.  We and other investors are not so sure.  While much remains to be seen in the coming months, we see little to move the broad markets ahead.  But if the broad markets will be sideways to down there remain some select opportunities that still look promising.  In light of a weakening economy we have taken and will continue to take some profits among our more economically sensitive issues.