19 Oct 2007

Posted at 16:09h in The Friday Brief by
This Friday marks the 20th anniversary of “Black Monday,” which sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average spiraling down 508 points or 23% in a day. The panic was sparked by investors realizing that Fed Chairman Paul Volker was wringing money out of the economy without apparent regard for its near-term health. His aim was to irradiate the prolonged and excessively high inflation of the time. The market drop was the second largest inUS history, second only to the first trading day after shutdown following the outbreak of WWI on 12/12/1914.

12 Oct 2007

Posted at 16:14h in The Friday Brief by
The week’s economic data was positive on balance. Given that the economy is largely consumer-driven investors are keenly interested in the health and intentions of the US consumer. The data on his health is largely positive. Wal-Mart and Costco were upbeat in their projections for the next quarter earlier this week. Today, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased 0.6% in September, more than forecast, following a 0.3% gain the prior month.

05 Oct 2007

Posted at 16:19h in The Friday Brief by
The sky may not be falling after all. Today the Labor Department reported that employers added 110,000 workers in September and they revised the August data to reflect that 89,000 jobs were added. The data correction is the larger news in that it reverses an earlier report that indicated the first loss in jobs four years. The employment scare raised fears that recession was more likely and probably played a significant role in the Fed’s decision to drop rates last month.

28 Sep 2007

Posted at 16:22h in The Friday Brief by
If the averages close today without significant change, the NASDAQ will have risen 4% and the Dow Jones Industrials 3.75%. Our models are on track to do well too with our most conservative up 3% and our All Growth model up 8.3%, before fees. They say the stock market climbs a wall of worry and there have been plenty of worries, but so far equity investors believe the economy will power on and that the Fed will do what it can to assure it will.