22 Feb 2008

Posted at 16:32h in The Friday Brief by
Search for the bottom in the housing recession continues, leading indicators are falling, the auction market has dried up, Oil breaks $100, Gold is reaching new highs, and the job market is cooling. Unfortunately there is little evidence to support the thesis that we will miss a recession other than the continued strong momentum in Asia and theMiddle Eastmay pull us out of this dive with the help of lower rates and government stimuli.

15 Feb 2008

Posted at 16:38h in The Friday Brief by
In the star-studded 1970’s comedy war film Kelly’s Heroes, Donald Southerland’s character ‘Oddball’ constantly admonished the dreary nature of his tank driver, Moriarty, played by Gavin MacLeod with the phrase “always with the negative waves Moriarty.”  The steady pounding of dour economic reports continues with little positive relief in sight. The juggernaut US and global economies seem to have changed course almost overnight. The change in mood is due both to qualitative and quantitative forces.

08 Feb 2008

Posted at 16:44h in The Friday Brief by
Last week we posed the question as to whether recession had already begun. Today 62 economists polled by Bloomberg News make it an even bet that job losses and housing contraction will stall the longest-ever expansion in consumer spending. They predict that the economy will grow at .5% in the first quarter implying the slowest growth since the 2001 recession. A growing number of economists, bankers, and brokers are saying that recession may already be upon us.

01 Feb 2008

Posted at 16:11h in The Friday Brief by
The title of last week’s Brief “It’s Not That Bad” rubbed a few of our readers the wrong way. It was insensitive at best to those in the real estate industry and I apologize.US mortgage foreclosures are set to top 1 million this year and home prices are falling at the fastest pace since the Great Depression. In the real estate industry it is that bad. While there is still mixed thought on whether it will drag the economy into recession, more industry leaders and economists are calling for dramatic government action. They say we need significant fiscal (tax cuts and relaxed mortgage rules) and monetary stimulation (further Fed rate reductions).