18 Dec 2009

Posted at 15:41h in The Friday Brief by
Last week we discussed the possibility of a “W”-shaped recovery/recession. In such a scenario the economy rallies for a few quarters (two or three) then falls back into recession lacking sufficient momentum for recovery. Our economy started its growth trajectory surging 2.8% during the third quarter and is expected to continue growing for several months. The Conference Board released its index of leading economic indicators showing steady economic growth continuing into the new year. But the recovery is saddled with issues that will not quickly dissipate.

11 Dec 2009

Posted at 15:44h in The Friday Brief by
This week’s economic reports brought further evidence of economic recovery. The Commerce Department reported today that retailers saw a 1.3% increase in November sales. And it was privately reported that hiring by US discount, grocery, restaurant, and specialty chains in November rose to the highest level in 2009, signaling that retailers may be anticipating a gradual recovery in consumer spending. Consumers are still buying autos without government incentives. And manufacturers are especially optimistic as they look forward to 2010 sales growing by 5.74%, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management.

04 Dec 2009

Posted at 15:47h in The Friday Brief by
Today’s news that unemployment dropped from 10.2% to 10% indicates that the deepest recession since the 1930s may be over, says the head of the government agency responsible for officially calling recessions. “Today’s report makes it seem that the trough in employment will be around this month,” said Robert Hall, head of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. “The trough in output was probably sometime in the summer. The committee will need to balance the midyear date for output against the end-of-year date for employment.”

27 Nov 2009

Posted at 15:56h in The Friday Brief by
For three weeks running the Dow has traded between 10,200 and 10,400. This week’s news was mostly positive with the Federal Reserve trimming its forecast for the jobless rate, home re-sales and new home sales rising, and consumer spending climbing more than forecast.