03 Sep 2010

Posted at 16:42h in The Friday Brief by
Political strategist James Carville won the election for Bill Clinton when he turned the campaign’s focus toward the economy to unseat President George H. W. Bush who was considered unbeatable because of his successful foreign policy. An article in the Capital Journal Section of today’s Wall Street Journal by Gerald Seib sums up the problem facing not only the Democratic party this election cycle but the economy in general. “Fact One: The unemployment rate is the most important of all leading political indicators. Fact Two: If the August unemployment number to be announced Friday tops 9% [it increased from 9.5% to 9.6% last month] the jobless rate will have been above that level for 16 straight months. Already, the U.S. is mired in the longest such stretch of 9%-plus joblessness in more than a quarter of a century.”

13 Aug 2010

Posted at 14:48h in The Friday Brief by
The 10% rally in the S&P 500 beginning in early July abruptly turned this past Tuesday as the Fed announced a small downgrade in their assessment of the recovery and as a Chinese government report suggested growth was slowing in that economy. The US recovery has been largely attributed to exports which will decline if China and the global economy drift back into recession. The three-day decline in stock prices this week erased 3.8% from the 10% rally. Treasuries on the other hand continued their multi-month advance as the Fed said they would replace maturing mortgage bonds held on their books with two to ten-year Treasury bonds. The Barclay’s 7-10 year Treasury index is up 3% since early July. 

06 Aug 2010

Posted at 14:58h in The Friday Brief by
The Great Recession, now in its 33rd month, drags on relentlessly and painfully as headlines such as today’s unemployment number perpetuate the gloom. The US economy lost more jobs in July than was expected and the unemployment rate remained fixed at 9.5%. But beneath the din, there are substantial reasons for hope of improvement.