02 Nov 2012

Posted at 14:32h in The Friday Brief by
Today’s much-hyped jobs report does little to help either candidate’s 11th hour election message. From the recovering perspective, job growth accelerated in October as the number of new hires increased by a seasonally-adjusted 171,000 people. But from the sluggish perspective, the unemployment rate rose from 7.8% to 7.9% in October. More people re-entered the job market than new jobs were available to offset. Today’s stock market is down, ceding some of yesterday’s 1.1% gain on worsening damage from Hurricane Sandy, some poor earnings reports, and an election too-close-to-call; in short, uncertainty remains.

26 Oct 2012

Posted at 14:45h in The Friday Brief by
During a political strategy session for candidate Bill Clinton, back in 1992 James Carvell ardently reminded those in the room that “it’s the economy Stupid.” The statement recognized a fact so simple and irrefutable, that even a stupid person should get it - people vote their pocketbook.

19 Oct 2012

Posted at 12:17h in The Friday Brief by
Twenty five years ago, this 19th day of October, the stock market experienced the worst one-day decline in its history. The Dow Jones Average fell an excruciating 23% on what would become known as Black Monday. As a broker and branch manager with only five years' experience, I remember that day as if it were yesterday. Stalwarts of my clients' portfolios like Procter & Gamble, Eastman Kodak, and AT&T had lost half of their value in a day or two. Even the bluest of blue chips like Coca Cola, Philip Morris, Merck and McDonalds were down between 20 and 30%. Brokers and clients alike were asking me for answers I didn't have. The best we could offer was to not panic, to stay the course - surely the world was not coming to an end. I was scared to death for my clients and I was scared to death for my family.

05 Oct 2012

Posted at 13:41h in The Friday Brief by
As we race toward November 6th, politics will increasingly overshadow economic data as the driver of markets. That said, if the presidential election is about the economy and the key to improving the economy is jobs, then Mr. Obama just got some good news to salve his less-than-stellar debate performance. The unemployment rate in the US unexpectedly fell to 7.8% for September, the lowest rate since he took office in January 2009, and the change has less to do with people leaving the job force (becoming uncounted), as in previous releases.