"People call it luck when you've acted more sensibly then they have." Amy Tan

When we invest or expend money to make a profit, we start from one of two vantages: Confidence or Luck. The first requires effort, competence, and a thorough understanding of what is controllable and what is not controllable and we plan contingencies for those things that are not controllable. The second perspective is the veritable flip a coin. Luck-dependent investment decisions are based on things like past performance, colorful brochures, and influential arguments.

Yesterday's report that the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance was the lowest since the early 70's provides more evidence that the US economy is becoming stronger. Investors are becoming convinced that the Federal Reserve will soon begin raising interest rates back to levels reflective of a healthy economy.