17 Dec 2004

Posted at 16:28h in The Friday Brief by
So far the Holiday spending season is outshining the more pessimistic prognostications of the more Scrooge and Grinch-like analysts.  On Monday the government reported that retail sales rose for the third straight month, despite rising fuel costs.  The end of the negative political ads, the highest job growth since 1999, and the recent drop in gasoline prices have all likely contributed to the improved mood and spending.

10 Dec 2004

Posted at 16:21h in The Friday Brief by
The government’s report that the growth in non-farm productivity dropped from 4.0% to 1.8% caused investor concern as the S&P fell 1.2% this week.  It was feared by some feared that the productivity miracle of the 90’s might be coming to an end.  We believe many of the drivers of productivity remain in place and that improvements will continue, albeit at a slower pace. 

03 Dec 2004

Posted at 16:26h in The Friday Brief by
The S&P 500 is up 1% so far this week and almost 8% in November.  Perhaps the single most important factor has been the 21% decline in oil prices over the past month.  Both shrinking demand and increasing supplies have contributed to the remarkable drop in prices.  But, still high at $43.00 a barrel, energy costs continue to blunt optimism on the strength of the recovery, causing particular concern in the area of consumer spending.  But recent historical evidence has been very positive.