26 Oct 2001

Posted at 16:09h in The Friday Brief by
One of the rituals of autumn is setting back our clocks to return to standard time (2:00 am this Sunday morning).  That extra hour of sleep in the midst of such a busy time is welcome indeed.  Fall, so often, also brings a falling stock market.  The tragedies of September moved that event forward this year. 

19 Oct 2001

Posted at 16:13h in The Friday Brief by
Wednesday’s market opened with much promise.  Our president said there were indications that our efforts against the Taliban and Al Qaeda were showing success.  IBM and several other notable companies reported earnings that were better than expectations.  The DOW and NASDAQ opened up 100 and 30 points, respectively, above their Tuesday close.  Investors seemed to ignore the news that terrorists had crossed yet another line by assassinating Israeli Tourism Minister Rehavam Ze’evi outside his hotel room.  Later in the morning, though, the weight of two events finally began to drive the resilient market down.  The first was a lack of financial inspiration from Mr. Greenspan followed by a steady flow of new anthrax letters cropping up in places of high visibility. 

05 Oct 2001

Posted at 16:15h in The Friday Brief by
“If you look at life one way, there is always cause for alarm.”  -Elizabeth Bowen, Irish novelist That the economy is ailing is no surprise to anyone.  Unemployment statistics, additional corporate layoffs, and earnings disappointments are part of every news segment.  While there is plenty of support for the negative case, there is also cause for optimism.  Many strategists are now saying that the market is at or near the bottom.  They say that it is too late to be defensive in portfolio makeup, and that the risk/reward ratio now favors being more invested in equities than bonds.  Even the mostly pessimistic Morgan Stanley strategist, Barton Biggs came out last week in favor of buying stocks now.  The economists at Credit Suisse First Boston make the following points;

28 Sep 2001

Posted at 09:22h in The Friday Brief by
To wish for something with the expectation of its fulfillment Our expectations for a market recovery were growing stronger in the days before the attacks as factory orders began showing improvement.  After the markets’ week long close investors sold stocks with renewed fears of recession.  The theme among pundits was that we were probably in recession before the attacks and that likelihood seems almost certain now.  Experts further agree that the recession will be deeper than before, but of a shorter duration.  There are several rationales for a shorter, deeper, or “V shaped” recession.   The consumer, credited with holding this economy afloat for months, is undoubtedly shaken by recent events and will likely slow his spending.  In effect, consumer confidence dropped in moments instead of grinding down slowly, over a period of weeks under the constant drone of layoffs and disappointing corporate profits.  So, we have reached lower consumer confidence numbers much faster than we would have before the tragedies.