02 Mar 2007

Posted at 16:42h in The Friday Brief by
We start our day without even thinking about it. We take for granted that the floor will support us when we step out of bed, that clean water will pour on demand from the lavatory spout to brush our teeth, and that hot water for our shower is just moments away. Confidence is defined in numerous ways and indeed changes in the circumstances. Webster defines it as “the state or feeling of trust in or reliance upon another” (person or thing, we could add).

23 Feb 2007

Posted at 16:31h in The Friday Brief by
Just a couple of weeks ago it looked as if the economy was going to re-accelerate after only modestly slowing to a respectable 2.5% growth in the fourth quarter. But more economists are now reducing their estimates for growth and saying that fourth quarter GDP will likely be revised downward from 2.5% to 2.0%. In several speeches, Fed governors and district-bank presidents yesterday pared their estimate of economic growth for 2007 to 2.5% - 3%.

16 Feb 2007

Posted at 14:54h in The Friday Brief by
Bond and stock investors alike are struggling to find some broad theme on which they can base their investment propositions. A problem is getting too close to the data, which, according to Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is ‘noisy.’ In his testimony before Congress Wednesday and Thursday Mr. Bernanke issued a balanced assessment of the economy with moderate growth and easing inflation. He said that he sees stabilization in the housing sector, and pointed to increasing strength in manufacturing and consumer spending.

02 Feb 2007

Posted at 15:24h in The Friday Brief by
The strength of the U.S. economy continues to confound skeptics as well as optimists. The government released it’s first of three estimates on the overall growth of the economy on Wednesday. Even in the face of slumping housing gross domestic product climbed at a seasonally adjusted 3.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from 2% in the third quarter. And even more noteworthy, it grew without inflation. The price index for personal-consumption expenditures posted its biggest drop in 52 years falling .8%.