23 Jan 2009

Posted at 15:22h in The Friday Brief by
Good news on the economic front is rarer these days than moments of grace from our new Vice President. The lofty and idealistic words of President Obama, so well spoken seem a distant whisper among the barrage of history-making declines in housing, employment, prices, and confidence. Republicans and Democrats are already at loggerheads over the stimulus package. Corporate earnings are more dismal than expected and equities markets have given up almost two-thirds of their gains from lows reached in November.

16 Jan 2009

Posted at 15:41h in The Friday Brief by
New revelations about the weakness of America’s banks have kept the pressure on stocks. The S&P 500 is down 5.2% at the moment but remains 14% above the market’s low reached November 20, 2008. A major reason stocks are holding up in the face of relentless economic news is their yield. Dividends paid on S&P 500 stocks are roughly 3.5%, which compare very favorably to the 10-year Treasury yield of 2.4%. Stocks are also up on investors’ high hopes for Obama’s economic team and their ultimate stimulus package.

09 Jan 2009

Posted at 15:43h in The Friday Brief by
High hopes for a fresh new year, a new Administration, and a massive new stimulus plan gave the markets new life for a few weeks. We wonder though whether investors’ expectations will withstand the continuing drone of bad economic reports, surely to come for the next several months. The early read suggests yes, expectations for recovery late this year are holding.

31 Dec 2008

Posted at 16:44h in The Friday Brief by
If commodities were traded for black eyed peas, you can bet they would be setting price records about now. Black-eyed peas have long been associated with good luck, particularly in the South and given the bad luck we suffered this year, folks will likely be pulling out all the stops to ensure a better one in 2009. Should you add black-eyed peas to your investment planning?