11 Jun 2010

Posted at 16:17h in The Friday Brief by
Since falling steadily during much of May by 12%, equity markets have traded within a 4.5% trading range since May 21st. Investors are struggling to assess what impact the worsening European debt crisis and China’s lending curbs will have on the US and on the larger global economic recovery. Since the breaking news of each, $6 trillion has been erased from equity markets worldwide. 

04 Jun 2010

Posted at 16:43h in The Friday Brief by
Employment generally begins to rise a few months or quarters into a typical economic recovery. Businesses see demand for their products and services rise faster than they can fill orders. The last bit of productivity squeezed from their workers and plant, they must hire. But when will we reach that point? We are in recovery from the ‘Great Recession?’ European debt concerns, slowing growth in China, and the greatest man-made oil spill in world history all serve to derail the chugging recovery.

28 May 2010

Posted at 15:47h in The Friday Brief by
Events of the past few weeks have rattled the confidence of even the most stalwart of optimists and caused more than a few to question fundamental tenets of the economy. How can millions of gallons of oil flood the Gulf and not permanently ruin that ecosystem and the livelihoods of millions of people who depend upon it? How can markets be called efficient when an aberration can cause the loss of a trillion dollars in mere minutes? How can the Euro survive a potential default by Greece and survive?

21 May 2010

Posted at 15:57h in The Friday Brief by
Yesterday represented the seventh down day in a row for the S&P 500’s, putting the average just 6 points above the low it reached during the technical panic of May 6th. It is 10.2% off its recent high of April 23rd and 3.9% down for the year. Long term US Treasuries on the other hand are up 9.5% since the high and 11% so far this year. Selling over the past three days was amplified when German Chancellor Angela Merkel banned some types of speculation against government bonds and financial institutions. The move was ill-received by investors in general but particularly in Europe as traders there drove the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down 7.2% in just three days. Other governments have not followed suit with the ban.