13 Aug 2010

Posted at 14:48h in The Friday Brief by
The 10% rally in the S&P 500 beginning in early July abruptly turned this past Tuesday as the Fed announced a small downgrade in their assessment of the recovery and as a Chinese government report suggested growth was slowing in that economy. The US recovery has been largely attributed to exports which will decline if China and the global economy drift back into recession. The three-day decline in stock prices this week erased 3.8% from the 10% rally. Treasuries on the other hand continued their multi-month advance as the Fed said they would replace maturing mortgage bonds held on their books with two to ten-year Treasury bonds. The Barclay’s 7-10 year Treasury index is up 3% since early July. 

06 Aug 2010

Posted at 14:58h in The Friday Brief by
The Great Recession, now in its 33rd month, drags on relentlessly and painfully as headlines such as today’s unemployment number perpetuate the gloom. The US economy lost more jobs in July than was expected and the unemployment rate remained fixed at 9.5%. But beneath the din, there are substantial reasons for hope of improvement.

23 Jul 2010

Posted at 15:03h in The Friday Brief by
The combination of strong earnings reports and guidance from giants like Alcoa, Intel, Microsoft, Ford, UPS, 3M along with better-than-expected economic data in Europe cheered equity investors this week. Despite the enactment of sweeping economic reform legislation, potential tax hikes promised by the White House and comments from Fed chief Ben Bernanke that “the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain” the rally continued.