25 Feb 2011

Posted at 15:04h in The Friday Brief by
Mounting problems in Libya sent oil prices over $100, natural gas trading to record highs, and equity prices reeling. The MSCI US Broad Market Index, which represents 99.5% or more of the total market capitalization of all US common stocks was down 3.9% intra-day, but closed down 2.9% for the week as of yesterday. Realization that there is enough oil supply, a number of good earnings reports and today’s news that last year’s economy (despite a downward revision) still grew the best in 5 years has stocks up .6% this morning. 

18 Feb 2011

Posted at 15:09h in The Friday Brief by
It was a mixed week for economic data, but a pretty good one for markets. The S&P looks to finish up close to 1% and the 7-10 year Treasury index is up .25% for the week so far.  Manufacturing news and corporate earnings continue strong, but the consumer may be taking a break. And still bouncing along the bottom, jobs and housing showed few signs of recovery. 

11 Feb 2011

Posted at 15:21h in The Friday Brief by
It was a light week for economic data, but the bulk of it was very encouraging. Yesterday, the Treasury announced that tax receipts are rising faster than government spending. It is a clear sign that the economy is gaining strength. The Treasury’s budget showed that tax receipts are up 9.4% while government outlays rose only 4.8%. Four months into the fiscal year, the deficit is at $418.8 billion, down from $430.7 billion a year ago. Any news that the economy is growing faster than the government is good news.

04 Feb 2011

Posted at 15:33h in The Friday Brief by
The flurry of economic data released this week was on balance surprisingly strong, with the notable and regrettable exceptions of jobs and housing. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke summed up the economic outlook yesterday. “Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established.” Yet almost every other metric is strong and getting stronger. Quarterly corporate profits are sharply ahead of a year ago, manufacturing is growing stronger, productivity continues to rise, and consumer spending as evidenced by retail sales is gaining strength.