29 Jul 2005

Posted at 14:58h in The Friday Brief by
The U.S. Economy continues to grow steadily.  The Commerce Department reported today that the economy grew at a rate of 3.4% during the second quarter.  It was the ninth straight quarter of growth exceeding 3%.  We have to go all the way back to 1983 to find a longer growth streak over 3% and it lasted for 13 quarters, ending in March of 1986. 

22 Jul 2005

Posted at 15:05h in The Friday Brief by
Back in February of this year Mr. Greenspan labeled the unusual condition of falling long-term rates and steadily rising short-term rates, a ‘conundrum’.  The rates generally move in parallel.  Yesterday, he told the Congress that the reason long-term bond yields have continued to fall while short-term rates have tripled over the past year was that global savings exceeded investment, inflation expectations are low, and the world economy is stable.  He also debunked the theory that an inverted yield curve signaled an economic slowdown, calling it a “misconception.”  He said “the quality of that signal has been declining in the last decade, in fact, quite measurably.” 

08 Jul 2005

Posted at 15:11h in The Friday Brief by
The economy is growing fast enough to create jobs, but not so fast to cause significant inflationary pressures.  The nation’s unemployment rate dropped to 5% in June from 5.1% in May.  Cutbacks at auto factories kept the payroll growth of 146,000 new jobs, below the expected 200,000, but the last two months’ job growth numbers were revised significantly upward, improving the job growth picture.