26 Aug 2005

Posted at 14:45h in The Friday Brief by
The week was all about oil – again.  Prices rose as Tropical Storm Katrina threatened oil production in theGulf of Mexico.  On Wednesday the price of a barrel of crude rose to $67.32, a new record.  Today as Katrina heads into the Gulf, it trades at $67.55.  Global demand for oil is now so high that any previously inconsequential disruption can threaten the supply of the irreplaceable energy source, at least in the fears of traders.

19 Aug 2005

Posted at 14:49h in The Friday Brief by
On most every front, housing, manufacturing, jobs, consumer demand, jobs, and corporate profits, the economy looks strong.  Growth should be sustainable for the foreseeable future, as long as the Fed doesn’t go too far with their rate increases.  Unfortunately, recent inflation data is not sufficiently benign to suggest the Fed may slow their pace any time soon.  On the positive side though, oil prices which topped $67.00 last Friday may have peaked. 

12 Aug 2005

Posted at 14:52h in The Friday Brief by
Based on comments from the Federal Reserve earlier this week and their actions in the previous weeks, it appears rates are headed considerably higher.  They say they believe higher short term rates and the possibility of an inverted yield curve will not create a recession.  We and other investors are not so sure.  While much remains to be seen in the coming months, we see little to move the broad markets ahead.  But if the broad markets will be sideways to down there remain some select opportunities that still look promising.  In light of a weakening economy we have taken and will continue to take some profits among our more economically sensitive issues. 

05 Aug 2005

Posted at 14:55h in The Friday Brief by
Tremendous growth in productivity of the last few years continues to strengthen our economy.  The latest evidence comes as the government reports that employers paid the biggest wage increases in a year, rising .4% last month, twice economists’ expectations.  Employers also created more jobs as payrolls grew by 207,000 last month, the biggest increase in three months.  Still, theU.S.unemployment rate held steady at 5% as more workers entered the labor force in search of jobs.  The civilian labor force increased by 450,000 in July, the Labor Department said. Of those, 438,000 found jobs.