12 Oct 2007

Posted at 16:14h in The Friday Brief by
The week’s economic data was positive on balance. Given that the economy is largely consumer-driven investors are keenly interested in the health and intentions of the US consumer. The data on his health is largely positive. Wal-Mart and Costco were upbeat in their projections for the next quarter earlier this week. Today, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased 0.6% in September, more than forecast, following a 0.3% gain the prior month.

05 Oct 2007

Posted at 16:19h in The Friday Brief by
The sky may not be falling after all. Today the Labor Department reported that employers added 110,000 workers in September and they revised the August data to reflect that 89,000 jobs were added. The data correction is the larger news in that it reverses an earlier report that indicated the first loss in jobs four years. The employment scare raised fears that recession was more likely and probably played a significant role in the Fed’s decision to drop rates last month.

28 Sep 2007

Posted at 16:22h in The Friday Brief by
If the averages close today without significant change, the NASDAQ will have risen 4% and the Dow Jones Industrials 3.75%. Our models are on track to do well too with our most conservative up 3% and our All Growth model up 8.3%, before fees. They say the stock market climbs a wall of worry and there have been plenty of worries, but so far equity investors believe the economy will power on and that the Fed will do what it can to assure it will.

21 Sep 2007

Posted at 16:08h in The Friday Brief by
Will the one half percent drop in the Fed Funds rate be enough to turn the ill tide that was gathering strength in the minds of consumers and business leaders? Probably not, but it was certainly a giant step in the right direction. Ben Bernanke showed that he was his own thinker, and importantly, a forward thinker. While he can say that the decision was data driven, previous Fed chairs have waited longer and required considerably more information before making their decisions. In fact, it was popular to say that the Fed drove by looking in the rearview mirror.