03 May 2013

Posted at 12:16h in The Friday Brief by
There was building sentiment in April that we were headed for another spring slowdown. Unfortunately, last Friday's GDP report failed to put those concerns to rest as it showed the economy was growing, but more slowly than anticipated, and not fast enough to create meaningful job growth.  This week the Fed announced no changes in rate targets or current stimulus plans saying the economy was growing "at a moderate pace." But remarkably several usually hawkish (meaning tough on inflation) Fed bank presidents revealed their growing concern over "De"- flation. And just to keep things interesting, today's jobs report stirred the pot further with a surprise on the upside. Today, we'll try to make some sense of it all.

20 Jan 2012

Posted at 12:00h in The Friday Brief by
Equity investors believe that the domestic and global economies are on the mend judging by their behavior so far. Since the end of September the US Total Market Index, S&P 500, and Dow are up 21%, 19.5%, and 18.5%, respectively. Global stocks as measured by the FTSE All-Worldex-US index are up 11.3%. In contrast, investors are shunning the safety of Treasuries as theBarclay’s 7-10 Index is down .25%. But last year the index soared 15% compared to a meager2% for the S&P 500.

04 Nov 2011

Posted at 12:08h in The Friday Brief by
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee met this week and held to the major tenets of its monetary policy. Rates will remain unchanged at near zero; Operation Twist will continue to extend purchases of longer-term Treasuries; language that rates will remain exceptionally low through mid-2013; and principal payments from its holdings of agency debt will be reinvested in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee anticipates “a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually.” The statement also said that the FOMC “anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate (inflation and employment) as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further.” 

24 Jun 2011

Posted at 14:27h in The Friday Brief by
The US economy grew at 1.8% in the first quarter according to the Commerce Department’s second and unrevised estimate. Following their monthly meeting, the Federal Reserve said they still expected the economy to recover, but reduced their 2011 GDP growth estimates from 3.3% - 3.7% to 2.7% - 2.9%. They forecasted growth of 3.5% - 4.2% in 2013. Forward looking stock investors have taken the S&P 500 down 5.9% from its April 29th high, but the index remains up 3% for the year. Bonds on the other hand have done well as the economy slumps. The Barclay’s 7-10-year Treasury index is up 5.5%.