10 Sep 2004

Posted at 16:04h in The Friday Brief by
Treated almost with a superstitious caution, the “I” word is avoided in conversation and print almost to the extent that it is feared by financial investors.  To say it is to give it credibility and the spread of that belief might even cause it.  If a single company is successful in passing on price increases to customers so that others follow, then industries, then sectors, then, ba da bing INFLATION!

19 Dec 2003

Posted at 09:50h in The Friday Brief by
Good news on jobs, leading economic indicators, and comments from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve sent stocks soaring on Thursday.  So far this year the Dow and S&P are up roughly 24% while the NASDAQ is up 46%.  Stocks are poised to have their first up year since 1999. 

28 Feb 2003

Posted at 16:09h in The Friday Brief by
The information age in all of its glory is alive and well in spite of, perhaps even because of, our current economic and political malaise.  During the 1991 war with Iraq, CNN benefited handsomely as the pioneer 24-hour cable news network.  As we again prepare for war withIraq, some six 24-hour national news networks crowd the viewer’s choices along with a myriad of newspapers, websites, and internet news services.  We can now watch and listen to reporters in every newsworthy (or what their producers deem newsworthy) corner of the world, on demand. 

19 Apr 2002

Posted at 16:01h in The Friday Brief by
Over the past several days, companies have released their calendar first quarter earnings and given their best guesses about near-term prospects.  The actual earnings reports have been in rather stark contrast to the more downbeat management projections for business in the coming quarters.  Earnings reports seem to support the economic recovery, but they are somewhat below earlier expectations.  Thomson Financial/First Call estimates that profits for the S&P 500 companies probably dropped 10.7% in the first three months of 2002, more than the 8.2% drop forecast by analysts at the beginning of March.  On the flip side though, 59% of companies reporting to date have beaten earnings projections, a higher percentage than at any time since 1994: a period when the Fed actively promoted expansion as they do now.