02 Mar 2012

Posted at 10:41h in The Friday Brief by
It is now two and a half years since the Great Recession officially ended. The 18-month downturn was the longest and most severe since World War II according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, nonprofit research group which officially calls the beginning and ends of recessions. But things are getting better you say. Why bring up the ugly past? Some economic data have indeed shown improvements, particularly of late. Manufacturing has been a steady stalwart of the recovery. Exports have been generally strong for months, while the much touted automobile industry has made a ‘remarkable’ turnaround domestically. GM regained the lead over Toyota for goodness sake.

16 Sep 2011

Posted at 13:03h in The Friday Brief by
It has been a week of dimming hopes. More economists now believe the US will slip into recession over the next twelve months. As the president stumped across to country to sell his jobs bill to the American people, Congressional support quickly waned on both sides. And indications that Greece will default on its sovereign debt combined with the worsening undercapitalization of European banks stymie efforts by Germany and France to hold the Euro region together.

08 Jul 2011

Posted at 13:58h in The Friday Brief by
Last week’s Brief posed a question within a question. First, has the US economy hit a temporary slow patch or is a prolonged slowdown looming? The question within is general and aimed at the cause of the latest slowdown. Answers include; disruptions in Japanese supply lines caused initial slowing; a retreating European economy, driven by debt concerns, further reduces demand for American goods and services, and emerging markets such as China, Brazil, and India are slowing their demand for US exports as their central banks attempt to rein in skyrocketing inflation. 

17 Jun 2011

Posted at 14:30h in The Friday Brief by
Rising incomes and asset prices cover a lot of sins. For decades, consumers, businesses, and most notably our government, enabled by a steadily expanding standard of living, have adopted excess as an entitlement. The overwhelming impact of years of excessive spending and over-borrowing is becoming increasingly acute as none of the usual remedies is working. Wasteful government stimulus (with a few possible exceptions from T.A.R.P), Fed-controlled interest rates at near zero for years, and quantitative easings 1 & 2 (Fed buying US debt) have all fallen well short of their usual potency. We seem to have hit the wall; our excesses have finally caught up to us.