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15 Jul 2005 Where’s the Slowdown? . . . Where’s the Inflation?

Posted at 15:07h in The Friday Brief by Sam Bass Jr.

The pessimists are finding it increasingly difficult to support their arguments for an economic slowdown or the renewal of inflation. Yet, it seems just as hard for people to take the optimistic view. The war in Iraq, the threat of terrorism, high oil prices, and potential boogeymen continue to throttle confidence.

15 Apr 2005 Hang in There

Posted at 16:48h in The Friday Brief by Sam Bass Jr.

The last two days of trading have been the worst since August 5^th and 6^th of last year. They have taken the blue-chip index to its lowest level in five months. What changed so drastically in the last few days? The economy was growing, but not so fast as to worry the inflation-guardians at the Federal Reserve; interest rates were holding steady, even falling a bit; and corporate profit margins were still fat enough to absorb some unforeseen shocks, like oil remaining above $50.00 a barrel for an extended period.

01 Apr 2005 Inflation and Oil Dominated the First Quarter

Posted at 15:23h in The Friday Brief by Sam Bass Jr.

The market’s bounce in February was not enough to overcome the declines in January and March sending all of the major equity indices down for the quarter. The Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 each declined 2.1% while the NASDAQ fell almost 8%. Bond indices didn’t fare much better as the Lehman 1-3 Year, the 7-10 Year, and the 20 Plus Year indices declined by .3%, .9%, and 1.6%, respectively. Our models performed in line with their respective benchmarks for the quarter.

04 Feb 2005 Will 2005 Be As Dreary as January?

Posted at 16:51h in The Friday Brief by Sam Bass Jr.

There’s a stock market axiom that says, as January goes, so goes the year. According to Bloomberg, since 1950, the S&P 500 has moved in the same direction during the year as it did in the first week 73% of the time. The S&P 500's drop so far this year marks its worst start since 1990, when it fell 4% in the period through Jan. 20^th. The index lost 6.6% that year.