15 Apr 2005

Posted at 16:48h in The Friday Brief by
The last two days of trading have been the worst since August 5th and 6th of last year. They have taken the blue-chip index to its lowest level in five months.  What changed so drastically in the last few days?  The economy was growing, but not so fast as to worry the inflation-guardians at the Federal Reserve; interest rates were holding steady, even falling a bit; and corporate profit margins were still fat enough to absorb some unforeseen shocks, like oil remaining above $50.00 a barrel for an extended period. 

14 Jan 2005

Posted at 16:00h in The Friday Brief by
Earnings season customarily brings stock market volatility and this one is certainly no exception.  As oil prices rise creeping toward their record highs and as several major U.S.industrials warn of earnings shortfalls, the good news has largely fallen on deaf ears.  The Dow Jones Industrial Index declined nine of the last twelve trading days for a 3.2% drop from year-end highs.  The NASDAQ is down 5.5% during a similar period.  Investors seem more cynical in January than they did in December when they chased the Dow up 11% for the month.     

10 Dec 2004

Posted at 16:21h in The Friday Brief by
The government’s report that the growth in non-farm productivity dropped from 4.0% to 1.8% caused investor concern as the S&P fell 1.2% this week.  It was feared by some feared that the productivity miracle of the 90’s might be coming to an end.  We believe many of the drivers of productivity remain in place and that improvements will continue, albeit at a slower pace. 

20 Aug 2004

Posted at 16:07h in The Friday Brief by
Oil futures are now above $49.00 per barrel nearing the record highs (inflation-adjusted) reached during the oil embargo of the 1970’s. Iraq’s shipments have dropped about 1 million barrels a day from 1.8 million in April.  Oil prices have set records every day save one since July 30.  World oil traders are concerned that the reduced supply fromIraq,Russia, andVenezuelacannot be offset by other OPEC countries which are producing at full capacity. Saudi Arabiais the only country with capacity to offer and their oil minister said yesterday that they were prepared to pump as much as they could.