10 Apr 2009

Posted at 16:30h in The Friday Brief by
In the process of investing we spend a great deal of time in linear thinking. We measure, we weigh, we time, and we project. We draw lots of lines as we make our assertions and projections. The regulatory agencies require us to disclaim that past results do not guarantee future results, but we all, to various degrees, subscribe to that very notion. The multi-billion dollar marketing machine we’ll simply call Wall Street spends millions of dollars a day drawing lines which analyze, dissect, compare, measure, and highlight past results. There is an implication that the more colorful and complicated these reports are the better equipped we are to decide their appropriateness for the future.  

13 Mar 2009

Posted at 16:46h in The Friday Brief by
This afternoon we find the S&P 500 advancing for the fourth day, up nearly 12% for the week. News on Tuesday that Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit’s remarks in an internal memo saying the bank is having its best quarter since 2007 and comments from regulators in Washington suggesting they may reinstate rules that limit short selling sparked the rally. By Wednesday it looked like it would run out of steam when Thursday’s Retail Sales report demonstrated there was still life in the consumer. The possibility that consumer, the largest part of the US economy combined with the picture Bernie Madoff swiftly and justly being escorted off to jail in handcuffs gave the market it’s second powerful boost upward. This week’s move dramatically demonstrates how fast markets can move on relatively little information.

06 Mar 2009

Posted at 13:30h in The Friday Brief by
The free enterprise system that made this country second to none on earth is in the cross-hairs of an increasingly out-of-touch Washington, D.C.  Frank, Dodd, Pelosi, Reich, Schrum, and others boldly, arrogantly, and endlessly flog the whole of in particular Wall Street and free-enterprise in general. As they continue, they risk dousing the spirit of risk-taking which drives our economy. If Mr. Obama places himself in the company of Abraham Lincoln he must better understand that the 16th President was a champion for the protection and nurture of the free enterprise energy of this country. In a famous speech in February of 1859, Mr. Lincoln the patent system “secured to the inventor, for a limited time, the exclusive use of his invention; and thereby added the fuel of interest to the fire of genius, in the discovery and production of new and useful things.” Mr. Lincoln observed that the government was not the inventor, the creator, or the risk taker, but rather the protector of the free citizen; protected by this government to take risk in hopes of profit, not vice versa.

30 Jan 2009

Posted at 14:48h in The Friday Brief by
There’s an old market axiom that says as goes January, so goes the market. As this one draws to a close we find the S&P 500 down 7.5% as the economy’s descent continues. According to Commerce this morning, the economy contracted at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. If the inventory buildup which occurred in the fourth quarter is excluded, the economy actually contracted 5.1%, the worst in 28 years. As reported, it is the worst since 1982. The economy shrank at a 0.5% annual rate from July through September. The back-to-back contraction is the first since 1991. For all of 2008, the economy expanded 1.3% helped by exports and government tax rebates in the first half of the year. The GDP report is the first for the quarter and will be revised in February and March as more information becomes available.