18 Jul 2003

Posted at 16:35h in The Friday Brief by
The earnings reporting season is in full swing now with a quarter of S&P 500 companies reporting this week.  The results were quite good on balance as numerous companies soundly beat analysts’ estimates.  Those companies beating analysts’ estimates span a broad range of industries.  They include Caterpillar, SanDisk, Boise Cascade, Georgia-Pacific, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, USA Truck, Marriott Int’l, Coca Cola, Ford, Johnson & Johnson, Stryker, New YorkTimes, and BB&T.  The list of companies surprising negatively is much shorter.  But it includes some notables like Kraft Foods, Fannie Mae, FleetBoston, Hershey Foods, Sears, and Microsoft.  

09 May 2003

Posted at 15:32h in The Friday Brief by
Have you noticed that the stock market is doing consistently better in spite of the continuing dreary economic news?  One reason is that we have largely escaped the first quarter earnings cycle without a single major blowup or negative surprise; corporate earnings are coming in better than expected.  What’s more, analysts have shown no signs of cutting their second, third, or fourth quarter earnings estimates. 

25 Oct 2002

Posted at 16:35h in The Friday Brief by
We are nearing the end of October – Hallelujah!  EVERY bear market since the end of WWII has ended before November 1st of that bear market year.  EVERY seasonally strong period (November to April) in the second year of the presidential election cycle (like this one) has produced an up market.  And as Don Hays points out, we know that every time since the 1930’s that six-months of Dow weakness equaled or exceeded by the prior six months, is followed by a six-month period producing gains of at least 40%.